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Sunday, 27 November 2011



Karachi Stocks Down 149.93 Points:
KARACHI, Nov 25: At close of trading, the KSE-100 index was at 11498.21, down 149.93 points. (today 10.08 a.m.)

November 25, 2011

Nestle Pakistan
Rs 116.60
Siemens Pakistan
Rs (43.00)
Bata Pakistan
Rs 18.74
Colgate Pakistan
Rs (15.05)
Service Industries
Rs 8.06
National Refinery
Rs (6.30)
Clover Pakistan
Rs 2.57
Linde Pakistan
Rs (4.53)
Sitara Chemicals
Rs 2.41
Rs (4.22)

KSE 30 – Shares Index
Previous 11,058.59, Friday’s 10.932.00, minus 126.59 points.
KSE 100 – Shares Index
Previous 11,729.41, Friday’s 11,648.14, minus 81.27 points.
Previous Rs.3,052.340bn, Friday’s 3,032.141bn, minus 20.199bn.
Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim 3.532m, Bank Al Falah 3.179m, OGDC 1.363m, Azgard Nine 1.362m, National Bank 1.233m shares.
TONE:easy,total listed 638,actives 309,inactives 329,plus 78,minus 123,unchanged 108
Stocks fail to sustain overnight rally
KARACHI: The shares market on Friday failed to sustain the overnight run-up as investors took profits at the inflated levels on oil and fertiliser sector owing to lack of follow-up support.
The benchmark index shed more points than it recovered overnight as the same set of bulls hastened to liquidate positions at the higher levels, pushing the market again into the minus column under the lead of leading base shares.
The net fall was of the order of 81.27 points at 11,648.14 points as compared to previous 11,729.41 points amid active late profit-selling in the pivotals after initial rise.
Analysts said investors seemed to be in two minds about the future market outlook and are not inclined to go beyond jobbing despite attractively lower levels most of the leading shares have attained, ensuring handsome quick capital gains.
“The turmoil in the foreign bourses owing to different reasons and the absence of investors may be one of the reasons behind the current sluggishness, but most of the local negative political news appear to be most pressing depressants,” said Ahsan Mehanti, a leading stock analyst commenting on the erratic market performance.
He said weekend profit-selling may have role in the easy market stance but the chief factor appears to be lack of investor will to keep the market going.
Another analyst Samar Iqbal said uncertainty on the memo issue kept the market under pressure as even the blue chip sector failed to demonstrate its relative strength.
Prominent gainers were led by Nestle Pakistan and Bata Pakistan, higher by Rs116.60 and 18.74, while among the top losers Siemens Pakistan and Colgate Pakistan were leading, off by Rs43 and 15.05.
Turnover figure dropped to a low level of 28.176m shares from the previous 51m shares as losers held an active lead over the gainers at 123 to 78, with 108 shares holding on to the last levels.
The active list was led by Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim, off Rs1.94 at 56.55 on 4m shares followed by Bank AL Falah, steady by two paisa at 12.01 on 3m shares, OGDC, off Rs1.34 at 153.21 on 2m shares, Azgard Nine, easy by two paisa at 3.43 on 1.362m shares, National Bank, off Rs1.07 at 42.10 on 1.233m, Engro Corporation, sharply lower by Rs4.87 at 126.40 on 1.137m and Fauji Fertiliser, lower by Rs3.16 at 172.36 on 1.113m shares.
They were followed by Arif Habib Corporation, lower 52 paisa at 28.67 on 1,113m shares, JS & Co, steady nine paisa at 5.63 on 1.030m shares and Lotte Pakistan, lower by 11 paisa at 10.06 on 0.788m shares.
FUTURE CONTRACTS: Both the settlements of Bank AL Falah were marked down by one and two paisa at 12.17 and 12.02 on 2m shares each, followed by Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim, off Rs2.05 at 54.45 on 1.219m shares.
They were followed by National Bank, lower by Rs1.11 at 42.51 on 0.882m shares and Engro Corporation, off Rs4.26 at 126.68 on 0.850m shares.
DEFAULTER COs: Stray business was reported on this counter under the lead of Genertech Power, easy by six paisa at 0.33 on 8,013 shares followed by Mukhtar Textiles, lower by 12 paisa at 0.17 on 2,519 shares and Redco Textiles, unchanged at 0.30 on 2,000 shares. Some others were also fractionally traded.

KSE sinking into bear cycle
KARACHI, Nov 26: In the absence of triggers, the Karachi Stock market drifted further down in the week ended on Friday.
Investors fearful of taking exposure, waited for positive developments. Imtiaz Gadar, at KASB Securities in his report argues that the year 2011 is likely to end as the “dullest year in KSE history”.
Not because of the minus 3.2 per cent return, but due to “frustrating range bound behaviour which limited opportunities for investors.”
To prove his point, the analyst ran figures of past two decades. Volumes this year have been at levels last seen in early 2000s.
Thin volumes not only hampered price discovery, they also restricted foreign investors, who usually are attracted to liquid markets. Advising investors to take exposure in sound fundamental stock stories, the analyst expects 2012 to be “more of the
same unless bottle necks are addressed.”

For four of the five sessions during the past week ended on Friday, KSE-100 index strayed into negative territory and lost 290 points or 2.43 per cent to close at 11,648 points.
Average daily volumes dipped 17.2 per cent to 34.4 million shares. One of the disconcerting factor for the local investors was the comparatively heavy foreign portfolio outflow of $3.84million during the week, compared to net foreign sell of $1.3
million the previous week.

“As far as market return is concerned, KSE-100 stood with a negative return of 1.01 per cent, year to date amid concerns over Capital Gains Tax return filing, in addition to the increased noise on political front in the country,” says Yawar Uz Zaman, analyst at InvestCap.
Naveed Tehsin, at JS Global also pointed to lacklustre activity at the local bourse during the week, which he blamed on the uncertainty surrounding the Pakistan Ambassador to the US and expectations of status quo in the monetary policy due on Nov 30.Moreover, IMF released its economic review of Pakistan highlighting macro-economic challenges owing to energy crisis and pressures on the external account. C/A deficit widened to $1.55billion in 4MFY12.
KASB analyst pointed out that the Pak-IMF talks on Article IV Consultation had concluded with the lender expressing concern over future macro indicators and reiterating the need for restructuring power sector and introducing fiscal reforms.
Talk of urea price cuts also did the rounds as fertiliser producers showed willingness to roll back prices by Rs100 per bag if gas supply stability was assured.
On Thursday, the market rebounded on two counts: Increase in wheat support prices to Rs1050 per 40kg and reports of exploration drilling in Zin Block with gas reserves potential.
But the analysts said: “We feel the impact of wheat support price rise will likely be muted as the quantity is below expectation and will not decisively affect crop planting decisions of farmers.”
Looking forward InvestCap expects market to remain depressed in the coming week owing to pressures on external front.
Rupee might further depreciate against dollar due to heavy outflows while increase in petroleum and gas prices could negatively impact inflation.
However, any positive change in the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) would support market activity.
KASB stated that the near term market direction largely depended on the upcoming MPS as corporate news flow had dried up.
However, heading into the closing stages of the calendar year, the brokerage house thought that the activity should pick up on book adjustments, anticipation of results and payout announcements.
Progress on inter-corporate debt would also be keenly watched as a liquidity injection might be needed soon.
In the absence of volumes, investors were likely to attach greater importance to foreign inflows.
The question that sat on minds of most retail investors was: Would foreign investors look back on cheaper valuation of equities and stage a comeback?

Mohammed Saleem Mansoori

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